Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
